Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 03, 2016)

The ISM manufacturing PMI slid from 51.8 to 50.8 in April, lower than the estimated drop to 51.6. The employment and prices components showed decent gains but the headline figure was dragged lower by weaker inventories, deliveries, and production. There are no major reports lined up from the US today.

USD

The US dollar gave up ground to most of its peers when data came in below expectations. The ISM manufacturing PMI slid from 51.8 to 50.8 in April, lower than the estimated drop to 51.6. The employment and prices components showed decent gains but the headline figure was dragged lower by weaker inventories, deliveries, and production. There are no major reports lined up from the US today.

EUR

The euro continued to advance against its peers as data came in mostly in line with expectations. Spain's manufacturing PMI even beat the forecast at 53.5 versus 53.0 to show a stronger pace of growth. Only the region's PPI is up for release from the euro zone today and a 0.1% uptick is eyed.

GBP

The pound gave up some ground to its peers as UK banks were closed for the holiday. UK manufacturing PMI is due today and a climb from 51.0 to 51.3 is eyed, indicating stronger industry expansion. 

CHF

The franc advanced to most of its rivals, buoyed by strong Swiss manufacturing PMI. The index rose from 53.2 to 54.7 versus the consensus at 53.6 to show a faster pace of expansion. However, Swiss retail sales showed a 1.3% year-over-year decline instead of the projected 0.3% uptick while the previous reading was downgraded. In addition, SNB head Jordan reiterated that the currency remains overvalued.

JPY

The yen pulled back in the earlier trading sessions but resumed its climb later on. The final manufacturing PMI was upgraded from 48.0 to 48.2, ushering in a bit of risk appetite in the Asian session. However, the lower-yielding currency took advantage of dollar weakness and advanced to most of its counterparts for the rest of the day. Japanese banks are closed on a holiday today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls regained ground on dollar weakness but were still no match to yen strength. Australian building approvals and the RBA decision are the main event risks for the Aussie today while New Zealand has the GDT auction and the quarterly jobs report due in the late US session or early Asian session the next day. Hiring could rise by 0.6% but the jobless rate is slated to rise from 5.3% to 5.5%. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way