Forex Major Currencies Outlook (March 20, 2014)

As expected, she decided to carry on with the Fed’s plan to taper $10 billion in asset purchases. She also announced that the 6.5% unemployment threshold for considering rate hikes will be removed, although she hinted that this might take place in about six months. US existing home sales, initial jobless claims, and Philly Fed index are up for release today and strong data might give the dollar another big boost, as these would confirm that the US economy is recovering.

EUR

The euro gave up a lot of ground to the dollar, although EUR/USD’s uptrend is still intact for now. There have been no major reports released from the euro zone recently and none are due today, which suggests that euro pairs could move to the tune of risk sentiment and dollar demand.

GBP

The pound managed to hold steady to the dollar in recent trading and make gains against most of its other counterparts as UK data came in strong. The claimant count change report showed a larger than expected increase in hiring while the BOE minutes showed a unanimous vote in keeping asset purchases unchanged. Only the CBI industrial order expectations report is due from the UK today and this might keep the pound afloat if it comes in strong.

CHF
 The franc lost to the dollar in yesterday’s trading session when Yellen spoke of a potential rate hike within the year. Swiss ZEW economic expectations also printed a decline from 28.7 to 19.0, adding to franc weakness. The SNB is set to make its rate statement today and even though no changes are expected, SNB Chair Jordan might jawbone the franc and cause it to depreciate.

JPY

The yen gave up some of its recent gains, perhaps a carryover result of the USD/JPY rally spurred by the FOMC statement. There have been no reports released from Japan yesterday and only a speech by BOJ Governor Kuroda is due today. His speech yesterday didn’t cause quite a ruckus in the markets and he simply might reiterate his previous comments in today’s testimony.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

 The comdolls gave way to the US dollar in recent trading, as the prospect of a Fed rate hike loomed. Data from the comdoll economies has been mostly weaker than expected, with Canada showing a mere 0.8% uptick in wholesale sales versus the estimated 1.2% gain and New Zealand printing a weaker than expected 0.9% GDP growth. No major reports are lined up from Australia and the rest of the comdoll nations today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way