Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Mar 21, 2017)

Formerly dovish member Evans acknowledged that the economy is doing better and that three rate hikes are possible this year while dissenter Kashkari said that he's not opposed to tightening if data shows more improvement or inflation reaches the 2% target. FOMC member Dudley is set to give a speech today while the US will print its current account balance.

EUR

The euro was in a weak spot ahead of the French election debates but soon regained ground when the polls handed victory to Macron afterwards. German PPI turned out weaker than expected with a 0.2% uptick versus the projected 0.4% gain. There are no reports due from the euro zone today so election updates could influence price action.

GBP

The pound tossed and turned on rumors and confirmation that UK PM May will invoke Article 50 by March 29. This marks the official start of Brexit negotiations as EU officials have confirmed that they will respond swiftly. UK CPI reports are due today, with the headline figure slated to rise from 1.8% to 2.1% and the core figure expected to tick up from 1.6% to 1.7%. Keep in mind, however, that wage growth has lagged behind so strong gains in prices could dampen consumer spending later on.

CHF

The franc was unable to establish a clear direction in recent trading as it functioned mostly as a counter currency. Swiss trade balance and SECO economic forecasts are up for release today and positive readings could provide the currency some support.

JPY

The yen also reacted to country-specific events instead of establishing a clear direction of its own. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday since banks were closed for the holiday and none are due today, which suggests that market sentiment could be the main driver.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

Comdolls gave back their recent gains to the dollar as risk aversion popped its head back in the markets. The RBA minutes indicated that policymakers were concerned about rising house prices and the HPI indicated a 4.1% gain in Q4 versus the projected 2.4% increase. Canadian retail sales figures are due next and both the headline and core figure are expecting strong rebounds. New Zealand is set to have its GDT index in the late US session.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way