Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Mar 20, 2015)

Price action was no longer as volatile in the latest trading sessions, as post-FOMC speculations have faded. Data released from the US economy came in weaker than expected though, as the Philly Fed manufacturing index fell from 5.2 to 5.0 instead of improving to the estimated 7.2 reading while the CB leading index showed a smaller than expected 0.2% gain.

EUR 

The euro resumed its drop to the yen and the dollar in recent trading as risk aversion settled in the financial markets. There have been no major reports released from the region then and none are due today, indicating that risk sentiment might continue to drive euro pairs around, with a bias to the downside due to the ongoing ECB QE program. 

GBP

The pound was back in its weak spot in yesterday’s trading sessions, even though there were no major reports out of the UK. As it turns out, traders are also becoming concerned about the impact of the pound’s gains on inflation in the UK, as the BOE indicated in their latest meeting minutes. Only the public sector net borrowing report is lined up from the UK today and it might not have such a huge impact on pound price action.

CHF

The franc had a mixed performance as it advanced to the euro and the pound but gave up ground to the US dollar. There were no surprises from the SNB interest rate statement, as the central bank kept rates unchanged and didn’t jawbone the franc. For today, there are also no major reports lined up from Switzerland and the franc might continue to be driven by market sentiment.

JPY

The yen strengthened against its forex peers, except for the US dollar. Risk aversion has supported the Japanese currency recently and it also helps that the BOJ indicated that they’re no longer interested in further easing, thanks to the ongoing wage hike talks. BOJ minutes are up for release today and this should shed more light on what the BOJ has in mind. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls weakened to the yen and dollar but made strong advances to the pound and euro. There have been no reports released from the comdoll economies yesterday while today has Canada’s retail sales and CPI data on tap. Core CPI could see a 0.7% uptick while headline CPI might be in for a 0.6% gain. Core retail sales could show a 0.4% slide while headline retail sales could see a 0.7% drop. Weaker than expected data might drive the Loonie lower against its counterparts. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way