Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Mar 11, 2015)

There have been no major reports released from the US economy so far, although medium-tier data have surprised to the downside. There are still no top-tier reports lined up from the US today, leaving the dollar to move to the tune of risk sentiment.

EUR

The euro was unstoppable in its decline to the dollar and some of its other forex counterparts, as weak fundamentals and the ongoing ECB quantitative easing weighed on the shared currency. Medium-tier data from the euro zone was mixed, with French industrial production showing a stronger than expected 0.4% uptick and Italian industrial production indicating a worse than expected 0.7% slide. ECB Governor Draghi is set to give a testimony today and his remarks could be crucial in determining euro price action.

GBP

The pound struggled to hold on to its current levels against the dollar, with GBPUSD hovering around the 1.5000 major psychological support. BOE Governor Carney mentioned in his testimony that inflation is likely to hit zero in the coming months, although he still assured that this might support consumer and business spending. UK manufacturing production data is up for release today and a 0.2% uptick is eyed.

CHF

The franc topped out at the .9900 major psychological resistance to the dollar and is still deciding whether to go further or not. Swiss jobless rate held steady at 3.2% as expected. Today has no reports due from Switzerland, which means that the franc could take its cue from euro zone reports or risk sentiment.

JPY

The yen advanced to the dollar and its forex rivals in the latter trading sessions as risk aversion favored the lower-yielding currency. Earlier today, Japan reported a 1.7% decline in core machinery orders, better than the estimated 3.9% drop. PPI came in at 0.5% as expected. There are no other reports lined up from Japan today, leaving yen pairs still sensitive to risk flows.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were still in a weak spot yesterday, although their latest losses weren’t so bad. Australia’s NAB business confidence index fell from 3 to 0 while the Westpac consumer confidence report showed a 1.2% decline. Later on, the RBNZ statement is set to spark volatility among Kiwi pairs, depending on whether the officials sound hawkish or dovish. Chinese industrial production and retail sales figures are also lined up.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way