Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Mar 08, 2017)

The headline trade balance showed a wider than expected deficit but components of the report indicated that both exports and imports picked up during the month. The ADP non-farm employment change reading is due today and this should provide some clues on how the Friday NFP might turn out. Analysts are expecting to see a 184K gain for the ADP report.

EUR

The euro gave back some of its recent gains as German factory orders printed a surprise 7.4% slump versus the projected 2.5% decline. The final GDP reading for the region was unchanged at 0.4%. German industrial production and French trade balance are up for release today. 

GBP

The pound slid against most of its peers as the Halifax HPI printed a meager 0.1% uptick versus the projected 0.4% gain. The UK government annual budget release is scheduled today but traders could continue to look to Brexit-related headlines for cues.

CHF

The franc was in a weak spot against its peers as uncertainties in the European region dampened demand for the Swiss currency. Swiss foreign currency reserves increased from 648B CHF To 668B CHF to show a bit of intervention. Swiss CPI is due today and a 0.2% uptick is eyed, an improvement over the earlier flat reading. 

JPY

The yen was able to hold on to its gains despite mixed data, as risk aversion was in play. The final GDP reading was upgraded from 0.2% to 0.3%, lower than the projected 0.4% expansion, while the current account balance printed a smaller surplus than expected. Average cash earnings data is due in the next Asian session. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie shed some ground as the Ivey PMI printed a drop from 57.2 to 55.0 to show a slower pace of growth. In New Zealand, the GDT auction showed a 6.3% drop in dairy prices, adding to the earlier 3.2% slide. Chinese trade balance was also weaker than expected at a 60 billion CNY deficit versus the projected 173 billion CNY surplus. Crude oil inventories data is due next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way