Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 30, 2016)

Data from the US came in line with expectations, as the core PCE price index was up 0.2% as expected while personal spending rose 0.4% even as personal income was slightly weaker than expected at 0.2% versus the consensus at 0.3%. Initial jobless claims and Chicago PMI are up for release today.

EUR

The euro was able to extend its rallies against most of its peers as traders continued to bank on smooth negotiations between the EU and the UK. German preliminary CPI came in line with expectations of a 0.1% uptick while Spanish flash CPI was stronger than expected with a 0.8% decline versus the projected 1.0% drop. Euro zone flash CPI estimates are due today and these should also provide guidance on whether the ECB might dole out more stimulus or not.  

GBP

The pound had another winning day, thanks to strong UK data and hopes that the government can negotiate a good post-Brexit trade agreement. Net lending to individuals rose to 4.3 billion GBP and mortgage approvals came in at 67K versus the 65K consensus. UK current account balance and final GDP data is due today. 

CHF

The franc continued to tread carefully as traders have been wary of additional SNB intervention. The Swiss UBS consumption indicator showed a gain from 1.24 to 1.35. Today has the KOF economic barometer on tap and a dip from 102.9 to 102.7 is expected. 

JPY

The yen returned some of its recent wins as risk appetite was in play. To top it off, Japanese retail sales came in weaker than expected with a 1.9% decline versus the projected 1.6% drop. Japanese preliminary industrial production data is due today and a 0.1% dip is eyed. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie was another strong performer yesterday, lifted by a larger than expected reduction in stockpiles. US crude oil inventories fell by 4.1 million barrels, larger than the estimated reduction of 2.3 million barrels. In Australia, HIA new home sales dropped by 4.4%. New Zealand building consents and ANZ business confidence figures are lined up, along with Australian private sector credit data. Later on Canada will print its monthly GDP and a 0.1% expansion is expected. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way