Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 16, 2015)

Data from the US economy came in weaker than expected, with the Empire State manufacturing index falling to negative territory and the capacity utilization and industrial production figures coming in below consensus. Only the building permits and housing starts readings are due from the US today, as markets gear up for the FOMC statement tomorrow.

EUR

The euro gave up a few more gains against some of its forex rivals, as traders started to accept that the Greek debt talks might not have a positive outcome. For today, economic data could still pushed the shared currency around, with Germany set to release its latest ZEW economic sentiment index. Economists are expecting to see a dip from 41.9 to 37.5, which would reflect a drop in optimism. Meanwhile, the region’s ZEW index is slated to fall from 61.2 to 60.3.

GBP

The pound was able to advance against most of its forex counterparts, with traders pricing in positive data from the UK this week. Yesterday, the UK Rightmove HPI indicated a 3.0% increase in house prices. For today, the CPI readings are due and the headline figure is expected to show a 0.1% rebound while the core figure could climb back to 1.0%. Stronger than expected data could allow the pound to extend its gains.

CHF

The franc was able to rally in recent trading, despite mixed data from Switzerland. The CPI showed a 0.8% decline instead of the projected 0.1% uptick but still marked an improvement from the previous 2.1% slide. Annual retail sales improved to 1.8% from the previous -2.8% figure and the projected -2.2% slump. Swiss SECO economic projections are up for release today and upgrades could mean more gains for the franc.

JPY

The yen returned some of its recent wins when BOJ Governor Kuroda said that he didn’t mean to cause a rally with his comments last week. Recall that the central bank head said that real effective exchange rates are already indicating appropriate yen weakness, which then sparked a huge selloff for yen pairs. There have been no reports out of Japan recently, which suggests that the currency could be more sensitive to risk flows.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls struggled to hold their ground in recent trading sessions, as commodity prices continued to tumble. In Canada, the manufacturing sales report showed a 2.1% decline instead of the projected 1.3% dip, keeping the Loonie weak. The RBA released the minutes of their latest policy meeting today and emphasized that policy needs to remain accommodative and that the Aussie needs to weaken. Later today, the New Zealand dairy auction is set to take place and another fall in prices could mean more Kiwi declines.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way