Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 01, 2016)

Data from the US economy came in mixed, with personal spending beating expectations with its 1.0% gain and personal income coming in line with consensus at 0.4%. The Chicago PMI fell into industry contraction instead of showing an improvement from 50.4 to 50.8 while the CB consumer confidence index also fell short of estimates. US ISM manufacturing PMI is due today and a drop from 50.8 to 50.5 is eyed. 

EUR 

The euro had a volatile run as euro zone data came in mixed. German retail sales fell 0.9% instead of showing the projected 1.0% gain but unemployment fell by 11K versus the projected 4K drop. French preliminary CPI beat expectations with a 0.4% increase while euro zone flash CPI estimates came in line with expectations of a 0.1% decline in the headline figure and a 0.8% increase for the core figure. Final manufacturing PMI readings are due from the top euro zone economies today. 

GBP

The pound suffered a sharp selloff against its forex rivals when Brexit polls suggested that public opinion was starting to shift in favor of leaving the EU. There were no reports released from the UK economy then while today has the UK manufacturing PMI on tap. A rise from 49.2 to 49.6 is eyed, but traders could pay more attention to Brexit-related updates. 

CHF

The franc was able to take advantage of the risk-off vibes in the European markets, as it advanced mostly against the pound. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then while today has the quarterly GDP due. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.3% uptick, slower compared to the earlier 0.4% growth figure. 

JPY

The yen regained ground against its peers when risk aversion peeked back in the financial markets. Housing starts data from Japan came in stronger than expected with a 9.0% gain versus the projected 3.9% increase. The final manufacturing PMI is due today and no change from the initially reported 47.6 figure is eyed. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie gave up ground to its peers when the Canadian March GDP missed expectations. The economy contracted 0.2% versus the projected 0.1% decline in growth, bringing the quarterly GDP to 2.4% versus estimates at 2.9%. Chinese official manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 50.1 instead of dropping to 50.0 while the non-manufacturing PMI fell from 53.5 to 53.1. Australian GDP is due next and a 0.6% growth figure is eyed. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way