Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 15, 2017)

Headline retail sales fell 0.3% instead of posting the projected 0.1% uptick while the core reading also showed a 0.3% drop. Headline CPI is down 0.1% versus expectations of a 0.2% gain. The FOMC is still coming up next and additional volatility is eyed. 

EUR

The euro weakened against most of its counterparts, except for the US dollar, as medium-tier data from Germany fell short of estimates. The final CPI reading was unchanged at -0.2% instead of being upgraded to the 0.5% consensus while the ZEW economic index also turned out below expectations. Employment change ticked up by a slightly better than expected 0.4% while industrial production advanced 0.5% as expected. 

GBP

The pound resumed its drop to its peers on mixed jobs data. The claimant count change came in at 7.3K, lower than the projected 12.5K increase in hiring, but the previous reading was revised to show a larger 22K rise in joblessness. The average earnings index fell to 2.1% instead of landing at 2.4% while the earlier figure was downgraded to 2.4%. The BOE decision is due next and traders are keen to see whether the central bank will attempt to reassure the public or not. 

CHF

The franc had a mixed run leading up to the SNB decision this week as market sentiment and currency-specific events seemed to be the bigger drivers of price action. No actual rate changes are expected but strong jawboning could mean franc weakness as traders grow wary of intervention. 

JPY

The yen took back ground against the dollar even though the industrial production figure was unchanged at 4.0% instead of being upgraded to the 4.1% consensus. There are no reports due from Japan today so traders could hold out for the BOJ decision on Friday. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie seemed unfazed by weaker oil prices as traders continued to buy up the Canadian currency on tightening expectations. Australia reported a weaker Westpac consumer sentiment index at -1.8% versus the earlier -1.1% reading while data from China came in closely in line with estimates. Industrial production stood at 6.5% instead of dipping to 6.4% while fixed asset investment slowed from 8.9% to 8.6%. New Zealand's GDP data is due next and a 0.7% expansion is eyed. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way