Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 7, 2015)

Data from the US came in weaker than expected, as the ISM non-manufacturing PMI climbed from 55.7 to 56.0, short of the projected 56.5 figure. For today, the trade balance and JOLTS job openings data is due and a wider deficit and lower job opportunities figures are eyed, which might lead the dollar to give back its recent gains.

EUR

The euro was still in weak footing early on, as Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis announced his resignation and the referendum was confirmed to have ended in a “No” vote to austerity and the bailout. EU officials will have another summit today to discuss Plan B for Greece, but the lack of a resolution could keep weighing on the euro. Data from the euro zone was mixed, as German factory orders showed a 0.2% decline instead of staying flat while the Sentix investor confidence reading improved from 17.1 to 18.5.

GBP

The pound was also in a weak spot, despite the lack of top-tier data from the UK. For today, the UK manufacturing production figure is up for release and a 0.1% rebound from the previous 0.4% decline is expected. Industrial production data is also due and a 0.2% dip is eyed.

CHF

The franc took its cue from the euro and showed losses to most of its currency counterparts. Swiss CPI came in line with expectations of a 0.1% gain while the unemployment rate and foreign currency reserves data are up for release today. No changes in the 3.3% jobless rate is expected while the foreign currency reserves figure could indicate if the SNB is actively intervening in the market to keep the franc weak.

JPY

The yen took advantage of the run in risk aversion in yesterday’s trading sessions, as it advanced against most of its rivals after the gaps were filled. Japan’s leading indicators fell from 106.4% to 106.2% and no reports are lined up today, leaving risk sentiment responsible for most of the yen’s movement.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

Falling commodity prices and the downturn in China’s stock market have been weighing on the comdolls for the past few days, and it didn’t help that Canada’s Ivey PMI missed expectations. The figure fell from 62.3 to 55.9, lower than the projected drop to 56.2. The RBA is set to make its policy statement today and no actual changes are expected but officials could continue to jawbone the currency. Canada’s trade balance is also due today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way