Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 31, 2015)

The economy expanded by only 2.3% in the second quarter versus expectations of 2.6% growth. Revisions to previous data also suggested that the economy didn’t perform as strongly as initially reported. Later today, the Chicago PMI and revised UoM consumer sentiment data are up for release and these could still spur strong dollar moves before the end of the week.

EUR

The euro sold off sharply against most of its peers when the IMF expressed doubts about the third bailout program for Greece. As it turns out, the institution would like to see debt relief from the country’s creditors to ensure that the country can eventually make it out of the debt cycle. However, this idea has been strongly opposed by Germany and most of the other European governments. Data from the euro zone was mostly weaker than expected, with Germany indicating a 9K increase in joblessness and Spain’s CPI and GDP falling short of expectations. German and French consumer spending reports are due today, along with euro zone flash CPI readings.

GBP

The pound managed to hold on to some of its recent gains, except against the dollar and the yen. The GfK consumer confidence index slipped from 7 to 4 instead of landing at 5, reflecting weaker optimism in the UK. There are no reports due from the UK today.

CHF

The franc carried on with its selloff to the dollar, despite stronger than expected KOF economic barometer readings. The figure climbed to 99.8, outpacing the consensus at 90.3, while the previous reading was upgraded to 89.8. There are no reports due from Switzerland today.

JPY

The yen seemed unnerved from the latest set of disappointing figures from Japan, as household spending slumped by 2.0% instead of showing the projected 2.0% gain while the unemployment rate climbed from 3.3% to 3.4% in June. The Tokyo core CPI showed a 0.1% decline instead of staying flat but the national core CPI managed to post a small 0.1% uptick. Japanese housing starts are still on the docket for today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie suffered a fresh round of selling after oil prices resumed their tumble. In Australia, yesterday’s building approvals report showed a 8.2% drop but the currency was able to draw support from today’s stronger-than-expected PPI release. The report showed a 0.3% gain in producer prices for the second quarter, higher than the projected 0.2% uptick. In New Zealand, the ANZ business confidence index slumped from -2.3 to -15.3 in July. Canada’s monthly GDP report is on tap for today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way