Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 16, 2015)

Fed Chairperson Yellen’s positive remarks on the US economy was also reassuring for dollar bulls, reminding market watchers that a rate hike is still possible for this year. Another speech from Yellen is on today’s docket, along with the release of the Philly Fed index.

EUR

The euro wasn’t able to draw much support from the Greek parliament’s approval of the bailout proposal, as traders were probably more focused on the difficulties of enacting these reforms. Some worry that the harsh austerity measures would push Greece deeper in recession and put the country back in a potential default sooner or later. Euro zone final CPI readings are due today but the bigger market-mover might be the ECB interest rate statement, during which Draghi might remark on the emergency lending fund to Greece.

GBP

The pound managed to trim its losses in recent trading sessions, as the currency was supported by a hawkish BOE outlook. Jobs figures came in weaker than expected, with the economy losing 7K jobs in June and the jobless rate climbing back up to 5.6%. Average weekly earnings was a tad weaker than expected at 3.2% versus the estimated 3.3% figure but still indicated a jump from the previous 2.7% reading. There are no major reports due from the UK today.

CHF

The franc was also in a weak spot in recent trading, although there were no reports weighing on the currency. Today has the retail sales report on tap and a climb from 1.6% to 1.9% is eyed for June. Also lined up is the foreign securities purchases report, which should provide traders an idea of whether or not the SNB is still intervening.

JPY

The yen took advantage of the run in risk aversion to advance against most of its rivals, except for the US dollar. The BOJ didn’t make any changes to their monetary policy as expected and their monthly report didn’t contain any adjustments to their outlook. Risk sentiment could continue to drive yen pairs around today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The BOC decided to cut interest rates in their latest policy statement, citing the slowdown in China and the U.S., as well as lower business investment in oil industries. The Kiwi was also under heavy selling pressure after the global dairy auction churned out a 10.7% drop in prices and the country reported a 0.4% quarterly inflation reading, lower than the projected 0.5% rise. Analysts are downgrading their milk payout forecasts for Fonterra and predicting a rate cut from the RBNZ next week. In Australia, the MI inflation expectations index climbed from 3.0% to 3.4%.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way