Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 12, 2017)

Both final wholesale inventories and JOLTS job openings data came in below expectations. Fed Chairperson Yellen has a testimony scheduled today and market watchers are eager to find out about her views on the latest NFP report and its impact on Fed policy. 

EUR 

The euro surged against its peers as it served as the safe-haven in the European region. Italian industrial production came in stronger than expected at 0.7% versus the projected 0.5% uptick. German WPI and the region's industrial production numbers are lined up today, with the former expected to show a 0.2% rebound and the latter possibly showing a 1.0% jump. 

GBP 

The pound was off to a good start but it wound up giving up a lot of its recent gains when MPC member Broadbent was not as hawkish as many expected. He focused more on Brexit trade risks during his speech and how it could impact costs and business activity. UK jobs data is due today and the claimant count could come in at 10.5K versus the earlier 7.3K increase. The average earnings index might slip from 2.1% to 1.8% to put more downside pressure on consumer spending. 

CHF 

The franc was mostly weaker against its peers even though there were no major reports out of the Swiss economy. There are still no reports lined up today so the currency could move to the tune of market sentiment and currency-specific events. 

JPY 

The yen was also a big loser but it managed to regain some ground to the dollar. Japanese preliminary machine tool orders surged by 31.1% on a year-over-year basis but traders are still pricing in dovish BOJ remarks for next week. The tertiary industry activity index is due today and a 0.5% decline is eyed. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) 

The comdolls were off to a weak start but recovered later in the day. Australia's NAB business confidence index improved from 8 to 9 while Canada's housing starts beat expectations at 213K. The BOC is set to make its policy decision today and hawkish remarks are eyed, although profit-taking scenarios could also come into play. US crude oil inventories data will also be released and a draw of 3.2 million barrels in stockpiles is expected. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way