Forex Major Currencies Outlook (January 15, 2014)

The actual core figure showed a 0.7% uptick versus the estimated 0.4% increase but the previous month’s reading was revised down to 0.1%. The headline report showed the expected 0.2% increase while the previous reading also suffered a downward revision. Producer price reports are up for release today, along with the Empire State manufacturing index. The headline PPI could show a 0.5% increase while the core figure might see a 0.1% uptick. The manufacturing index is expected to show an improvement from 1.0 to 3.2.

EUR

The euro consolidated to the dollar in the past few trading sessions, as there were no major reports released from the euro zone. For today, we might see more of the same as there are still no top-tier reports lined up.

GBP
The pound recovered in yesterday’s trading, despite the weaker than expected CPI report. The figure landed at 2.0%, within the central bank’s target range, down from the previous 2.1% reading. This means that there’s less pressure for the BOE to hike rates or reduce bond purchases, as inflation has come within their goals. BOE Governor Carney is set to give a speech today and possibly cause some volatility among pound pairs.

CHF

The franc regained ground against the US dollar in yesterday’s trading but USD/CHF is still hovering above the .9000 major psychological level. Swiss retail sales data is up for release today and a 2.3% figure is expected, which is a strong improvement from the previous 1.2% reading.

JPY
The yen gave up a bit of its gains yesterday as risk appetite improved in the markets. There have been no major releases from Japan, leaving yen pairs sensitive to market sentiment and Asian equities performance. For today, preliminary machine tool orders data is due along with the 30-year bond auction, which might add volatility to yen pairs’ movements.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls gave up ground to the dollar, as AUD/USD retreated from the .9050 area while USD/CAD surged past 1.0950. Chinese medium-tier data, such as home loans and money supply, have come in weaker than expected and triggered an Aussie selloff in today’s trading session. There are no other reports due from the comdoll economies for the upcoming sessions.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way