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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 24, 2018)

USD

The US dollar was the weakest currency for yet another day as risk-taking and weak data dragged it down.

Safe-haven flows also moved to the Japanese yen and Swiss franc instead. The Richmond manufacturing index slumped from 20 to 14 versus the consensus at 19. Flash manufacturing and services PMI are due next, along with existing home sales data.

EUR

The euro had a mixed run as it advanced to the dollar but weakened to the pound and comdolls. Data turned out stronger than expected as the ZEW readings from both Germany and the entire region beat estimates. Flash manufacturing and services PMIs are due next, and small dips are eyed. Updates on the German coalition talks should continue to influence the shared currency as well.

GBP

The pound was able to hold its ground on stronger than expected public sector net borrowing and CBI industrial order expectations data. UK jobs data is due next and a lower claimant count change of 2.3K is eyed compared to the previous month's 5.9K increase in joblessness. The average earnings index could hold steady at 2.5% while the unemployment rate could stay unchanged at 4.3%.

CHF

The franc took its share of safe-haven gains despite the lack of top-tier data from Swizterland. There are still major reports due from the Swiss economy today, so market sentiment could push franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen gained ground after the BOJ was slightly more hawkish than expected. Still, the central bank decided to keep rates and bond purchases at current levels. Apart from that, the lower-yielding Japanese currency took advantage of dollar weakness. The flash manufacturing PMI is due next.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The higher-yielding comdolls once again gained ground on risk rallies, with the Loonie drawing additional support from NAFTA developments. Key members of the negotiating groups acknowledged that some progress is being made, although Trump still seems prepared to walk away without a deal. EIA crude oil inventories data and New Zealand's quarterly CPI report are lined up next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

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