Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Feb 4, 2015)

Data from the US economy was weaker than expected, as factory orders marked a 3.4% decline versus the projected 1.8% drop while the previous month’s reading was downgraded to show a 1.7% decline. The ADP non-farm employment change report is up for release today and it might provide a preview for Friday’s NFP release. The report is expected to show a 224K gain in hiring, slightly weaker compared to the previous 241K increase. Also lined up today is the ISM non-manufacturing PMI, which might improve from 56.2 to 56.6.

EUR

The euro recovered to the dollar and the yen in yesterday’s trading sessions, as risk sentiment improved. Data from the euro zone was better than expected, as Spain reported a smaller increase in joblessness of 78.0K versus the projected 83.4K. For today, the Spanish and Italian services PMI readings are due, along with the region’s services PMI. Euro zone retail sales data is also up for release and a 0.1% drop is eyed. 

GBP

The pound bounced back in recent trading when the UK construction PMI beat expectations. The report showed a climb from 57.6 to 59.1, reflecting a faster pace of industry expansion. The services PMI is up for release today and it might have a stronger impact on pound movement, as the sector contributes a huge chunk to overall economic growth. The reading is slated to climb from 55.8 to 56.6 and a stronger than expected report might lead to more pound gains. 

CHF

The franc consolidated to the dollar and was barely able to take advantage of the profit-taking that occurred among most dollar pairs when the Swiss trade balance fell short of estimates. The surplus narrowed from a downgraded 3.80 billion CHF to 1.52 billion CHF, smaller than the estimated 2.17 billion CHF figure. There are no reports due from Switzerland today. 

JPY

The yen gave up a lot of ground to its forex rivals when risk appetite picked up. There have been no reports released from Japan yesterday and none are due today, indicating that risk sentiment might continue to drive forex price action among yen pairs. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were able to breathe a sigh of relief when risk appetite took over the markets and spurred strong gains. Data from New Zealand was better than expected, as the employment change figure indicated a 1.2% quarterly gain in hiring. The jobless rate climbed from 5.4% to 5.7% but this was spurred by an improvement in the participation rate. The dairy auction also printed strong results, as prices climbed by 9.4%. Canada’s Ivey PMI is up for release today and a drop from 55.4 to 53.8 is expected. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way