Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Feb 20, 2015)

Data from the US economy was mixed, as initial jobless claims came in better than expected while the Philly Fed index showed a decline from 6.3 to 5.2 instead of improving to the estimated 8.8 reading. Only the US flash manufacturing PMI is up for release today and the figure is slated to fall from 53.9 to 53.7.

EUR

The euro continued to consolidate against most of its major counterparts, with a slight bias to the downside as rumors that Germany rejected Greece’s latest proposal hit the airwaves. The ECB meeting minutes barely contained any surprises, as it simply showed that most officials favored an increase in stimulus. Euro zone PMIs are up for release and a few improvements are expected, but any updates on the Greek debt talks might have a bigger role in euro price action.

GBP

The pound returned some of its recent wins, after traders booked profits on their long trades after the UK jobs report release earlier in the week. CBI industrial orders expectations data came in stronger than expected, as the index improved from 4 to 10, higher than the projected reading at 7. UK retail sales and public sector net borrowing data are up for release today and it will be interesting to see if the downturn in inflation is actually translating to stronger spending as Carney suggested.

CHF

The franc edged lower to its forex counterparts despite stronger than expected trade balance figures from Switzerland. SNB head Thomas Jordan’s remarks on stepping up their intervention efforts in case the euro tumbles on a Greek exit seem to have weighed on the Swiss currency lately. There are no reports due from Switzerland today.

JPY

The yen had a mixed performance, as it advanced to the euro and the dollar but weakened against the commodity currencies. Japan’s trade balance came in stronger than expected and showed a smaller shortfall, with exports marking a record 17% gain. Earlier today, Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI came in weaker than expected, as it fell from 52.2 to 51.5 instead of improving to 52.6.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie and the Kiwi posted a few gains in recent trading while the Loonie slid lower to the US dollar. Canada is set to print its retail sales data later on and possibly show a 0.3% decline in core consumer spending and a 0.7% drop in headline retail sales. No other reports are lined up from the comdoll economies for the rest of the day.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way