Forex Major Currencies Outlook (December 18, 2013)

The current account was also better than expected at -95 billion USD instead of the estimated -101 billion USD and the previous -97 billion USD. For today, the U.S. dollar could be in for a lot of consolidation prior to the FOMC statement. A decision to taper could be very positive for the U.S. dollar while an announcement postponing the taper could lead to a strong dollar selloff.

EUR

The euro continued to stall around its current levels to the dollar, thanks to the lack of major reports from the euro zone. German ZEW economic sentiment came in better than expected at 62.0 instead of the 55.3 reading, but was not enough to propel the euro to new highs. Euro zone CPI readings came in at 0.9%, slightly in line with expectations. German Ifo business climate data is up for release today and another strong figure could be seen.

GBP

The pound was unable to draw enough support from BOE Governor Carney’s comments saying that QE has reached its end, assuming there are no further shocks. Perhaps what traders are eager to hear are remarks that QE will be reduced sooner or later, but this wasn’t the case. For today, UK claimant count change and BOE meeting minutes are up for release. The jobs data could show a 35.2K drop in claimants, which should keep the jobless rate steady at 7.6%. A larger than expected decline, coupled with less dovish BOE minutes, could be positive for the pound.

CHF

The franc rebounded against its counterparts in yesterday’s trading, even though there were no major reports from Switzerland. Today has the Swiss ZEW economic expectations report on tap and the index is expected to show an improvement from the previous 31.6 reading, which could allow the franc to extend its gains.

JPY

The yen was able to score gains against most of its major counterparts, despite the lack of top-tier data from Japan. Today’s trade balance release fell short of expectations though, triggering a quick bounce among yen pairs. No other reports are due from Japan for the rest of the day, but all eyes are on USD/JPY particularly for the FOMC statement.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Australian dollar chalked up another round of losses when RBA Governor Stevens began jawboning again, saying that intervention can be useful and that the Australian central bank actually considered doing so recently. New Zealand reported a weaker than expected current account balance but made up for it with a strong improvement in its ANZ business confidence figure. As for Canada, stronger than expected manufacturing sales data was not enough to give it a strong boost and today’s wholesale sales might have a minimal effect as well.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way