Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Dec 3, 2014)

There were no major reports released from the US economy, as FOMC officials were also vague with their clues on what the Fed has up its sleeve. Fed head Yellen gave a speech but didn’t comment on the Fed’s policy bias. The US ADP non-farm employment change report is up for release today and it might show a dip from 230K to 223K, although stronger than expected data could spur positive expectations for Friday’s NFP. Non-farm productivity and unit labor costs figures are also up for release. 

EUR

The euro was in a weak spot once more as traders started pricing in expectations for the upcoming ECB rate statement. Euro zone PPI came in weaker than expected at a 0.4% decline instead of the projected 0.3% uptick, reminding traders that deflation is a possibility in the region. Spanish and Italian services PMI are up for release today and strong figures might lead to a quick euro bounce. Also lined up for today is the release of euro zone retail sales data, which could indicate a 0.6% rebound. 

GBP

The pound resumed its selloff to the dollar when the UK construction PMI came in weaker than expected. The index slipped from 61.4 to 59.4, weaker than the projected 61.1 reading and reflective of a slower expansion in the industry. Services PMI is up for release today and this usually has a larger impact on pound movement, as the industry comprises a huge chunk of overall economic performance. The UK government is also set to publish its Autumn Forecast Statement, although this might zoom in on budget projections. 

CHF

 The franc weakened in recent trading, as the continued slide in gold prices weighed on the Swiss currency. There have been no reports due from Switzerland yesterday, leaving the franc as a counter currency. Today, the Swiss GDP report is due and it might show a 0.3% growth figure after staying flat in the previous quarter. Weaker than expected data might lead to more franc weakness.

JPY

The yen fell to new record lows to the dollar, as USDJPY resumed its ascent past the 119.00 mark recently. There have been no major reports released from Japan yesterday and none are due today, leaving the yen at the mercy of risk sentiment. Against other majors, it didn’t fare so terribly though, as the yen consolidated to the commodity currencies. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

Thecomdolls resumed their weak trading in yesterday’s sessions, as the New Zealand dairy auction showed another decline in prices. This led to talks of another milk payout cut from Fonterra, which might later on take its toll on consumer spending and economic performance. The RBA decided to keep rates on hold at 2.50% as expected, leading to a bit of relief rally for the Aussie but this wasn’t sustained in the later sessions. The BOC is set to make its interest rate decision today and isn’t likely to announce major policy changes as well. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way