Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Dec 15, 2014)

US headline PPI was weaker than expected with a 0.2% decline and the core version of the report also indicated a weaker than expected figure as it stayed flat instead of picking up by 0.1%. Consumer sentiment surprised to the upside though, as the University of Michigan preliminary index climbed from 88.8 to 93.8, indicating a pickup in confidence. For today, medium-tier reports such as industrial production and capacity utilization, along with Empire State manufacturing index due.

EUR

The euro’s price action was a little more upbeat last week, despite weaker than expected figures from the region. Industrial production marked a mere 0.1% uptick while the employment change figure held steady at 0.2%, down from the previous 0.3% increase. For today, only the German monthly Buba report is due and no major announcement are expected, which might keep euro pairs in range or in their current trends.

GBP

The pound carried on with its slow but steady recovery to the dollar, even as the UK saw a weaker than expected construction output reading. The report marked a 2.2% drop in activity, worse than the projected 0.8% increase. Earlier today, the Rightmove HPI indicated a 3.3% drop in prices, following the previous 1.7% decline. Later on, the CBI industrial order expectations report is up for release and might show a steady figure at 3.

CHF

The franc managed to hold on to its recent gains against the dollar and advanced against the euro, as the SNB refrained from taking any action last week. Many expected the central bank to ease or intervene in the currency market since EURCHF is moving close to the 1.2000 floor and the country is facing potential deflation. Swiss PPI is due today and a 0.2% uptick in producer prices is expected to follow the previous 0.1% downtick. 

JPY 

The yen continued to advance against most of its counterparts, as traders anticipated the results of the lower house elections last Friday. The polls held over the weekend indicated a victory for Abe’s government, which would mean a continuation of their aggressive reform plans. This was taken negatively by Japanese equities, as the likelihood of another sales tax hike could lead to more spending weakness and a deeper recession. Earlier today, the Tankan manufacturing index fell from 13 to 12 while the non-manufacturing component saw an improvement from 13 to 16. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were off to a weak start this week, as the hostage situation in Australia weighed on the Aussie and Kiwi. Data from China was mixed last Friday, as industrial production missed the mark with a 7.2% gain versus the projected 7.6% increase while retail sales showed an 11.7% gain. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way