Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Dec 13, 2016)

The federal budget deficit was much wider than expected, also casting some doubts on how the new US presidency could keep spending in check. Medium-tier reports such as the NFIB small business index and US import prices are due today but pre-FOMC action could be in play.

EUR

The euro made a decent bounce on reports that the Italian government pledged to bail out Monte dei Paschi in case private investors decline to provide funds, easing concerns of a full-blown banking crisis in the country. ZEW economic sentiment figures from Germany and the region are up for release today and improvements could keep the shared currency supported.

GBP

The pound also made a bit of a bounce when UK Chancellor Hammond supported the idea of a longer transition period for Brexit. This underscored BOE Governor Carney's calls for a "Brexit Buffer" which would give businesses and banks more time to adjust. UK CPi figures are due today and a pickup in the headline figure from 0.9% to 1.1% is eyed while the core CPI could climb from 1.2% to 1.3%.

CHF

The franc gave up ground to most of its peers, except against the US dollar. There were no major reports out of Switzerland yesterday but traders seem to be paring their exposure ahead of the SNB decision later on. 

JPY

The yen regained some ground after gapping lower against its counterparts. Yen pairs are already testing key resistance levels or are approaching areas of interest so there may be some profit-taking happening ahead of potential volatility during the FOMC announcement. Data from Japan was still weak, with the tertiary industry activity index up 0.2% versus the projected 0.3% gain and preliminary tool orders down 5.6%.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls took advantage of the slide in the dollar and the pickup in risk-taking. Over the weekend, non-OPEC oil producers expressed support for the OPEC output deal to stabilize oil prices. Australia reported a weaker increase in house prices for Q3, easing concerns over a property bubble. Chinese industrial production and fixed asset investment were mostly in line with expectations while retail sales surprised to the upside with a 10.8% year-over-year gain. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way