Forex Major Currencies Outlook (August 6, 2014)

Risk appetite was weak recently while US data came in stronger than expected. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI climbed from 56.0 to 58.7, higher than the consensus at 56.6. US factory orders showed a 1.1% gain, stronger than the estimated 0.6% increase. US trade balance and crude oil inventories are up for release today.

EUR

The euro sank further to the dollar and the yen when euro zone data came in mixed. Spain’s services PMI improved from 54.8 to 56.2, stronger than the estimated 55.1 figure, while Italy’s services PMI disappointed as it fell to 52.8 from 53.9. Euro zone retail sales came in line with expectations of a 0.4% gain. German factory orders, Italian industrial production and GDP are up for release from the euro zone today.

GBP
The pound was unable to benefit from the stronger than expected UK services PMI, as risk aversion was present in the financial markets yesterday. The services PMI jumped from 57.7 to 59.1, outpacing the consensus at 58.1. UK manufacturing and industrial production numbers are up for release today and rebounds are eyed.

CHF
The franc also lost ground to the dollar in recent trading, as it simply followed the euro’s footsteps. Swiss CPI is up for release today and the figure is slated to show a 0.5% decline in price levels, worse than the previous month’s 0.1% downtick. The franc might be in for more losses if the actual figure comes in weaker than expected as it might revive deflation fears in the country.

JPY

The yen rallied against most of its counterparts and took advantage of safe-haven flows in recent trading. There have been no reports released from Japan yesterday and only the leading indicators data is up for release today. Risk sentiment might keep driving yen price action and if risk appetite surges, the yen might be forced to return some of its recent gains.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Kiwi was a big loser in recent trading as a weak dairy auction and mixed jobs data weighed on the currency. Whole milk powder prices fell by 11.5% and marked a 46% decline from its peak in February this year, leading many to speculate about lower milk payouts from Fonterra again. Quarterly employment change ticked up by only 0.4% versus the estimated 0.7% gain while the jobless rate improved because of a drop in participation rate. Over in Australia, the RBA didn’t make any surprises with its rate statement and kept rates unchanged at 2.50% for now. Canadian trade balance is due today and a smaller deficit of 0.1 billion CAD is eyed.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way.