Forex Major Currencies Outlook (April 30, 2013)

The core PCE price index, which is rumored to be the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, posted a flat reading instead of the estimated 0.1% uptick. For today, CB consumer confidence and Chicago PMI could be the main movers for U.S. dollar price action. The currency has been sensitive to fundamentals lately, which means that weak data could drive the dollar lower.

EUR

EUR/USD has put up a strong fight to stay above the 1.3000 major psychological level as it took advantage of dollar weakness yesterday and jumped to 1.3100. There are several medium-tier reports on the euro zone’s schedule for today but none are expected to have a lasting impact on euro price action as traders are awaiting the ECB rate decision later on in the week. Further weakness from the U.S. economy could prop EUR/USD higher but the 1.3200 level should hold as resistance.

GBP

Last week’s stronger than expected U.K. Q1 2013 GDP figure and this week’s weaker than expected U.S. economic data have boosted GBP/USD close to the 1.5600 major psychological level in yesterday’s trading. There are no major reports on the U.K.’s schedule for today, which suggests quiet trading for pound pairs. Take note though that U.S. figures could still push GBP/USD higher if they come in below expectations.

CHF                                     

There are no major reports due from Switzerland today, leaving USD/CHF vulnerable to U.S. data. Luckily for the franc, U.S. reports have disappointed lately so USD/CHF was able to edge lower. Continue to keep an eye out for U.S. reports due today if you’re trading this pair.

JPY                                        

Lack of liquidity kept the yen’s gains in check during yesterday’s trading as most pairs simply ranged. Today’s set of reports, however, triggered a slight selloff in the early Asian session as some figures disappointed. Industrial production and retail sales both missed expectations while housing starts and the jobless rate came out strong.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

Commodity currencies edged slightly higher against the U.S. dollar as the Loonie packed its fourth straight day of wins. However, the freshly released ANZ business confidence report from New Zealand posted a decline from 34.6 to 32.3 while the Australian private sector credit report fell short of consensus. Canada will release its monthly GDP report in today’s New York session and this should determine if the Canadian dollar could sustain its recent rallies.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way