Forex Major Currencies Outlook (April 2, 2014)

However, this was still short of the estimate at 54.2. Despite that, analysts took this as a sign that the upcoming NFP release could print promising results and reinforce Yellen’s view that the labor sector is recovering. The ADP non-farm employment change report due today should paint a clearer picture of the jobs market and the figure is slated to show a 192K reading, higher than the previous 139K. A stronger than expected report could reinforce dollar strength as traders position ahead of Friday’s NFP release.

EUR

The euro managed to hold steady to the dollar and post minimal losses as traders sit tight for the upcoming ECB rate decision tomorrow. German unemployment change came in better than expected and showed a 12K increase in hiring while Spanish and Italian manufacturing PMI came in line with expectations. Spanish unemployment change data is up for release today and a strong figure could keep the euro supported.

GBP

The pound gave up some of its recent gains to the dollar when the manufacturing PMI came in weaker than expected. The previous month’s reading was revised down to 56.2 while the latest release showed a decline to 55.3 instead of an improvement to 56.7. The construction PMI is up for release today and an improvement from 62.6 to 63.1 is eyed, but this might not have such a huge impact on pound movement since traders are more sensitive to the services PMI which is up for release tomorrow.

CHF

The franc was able to advance against the dollar in recent trading even though Switzerland’s SVME PMI slipped from 57.6 to 54.4, reflecting weaker expansion in the manufacturing industry. There are no reports due from Switzerland today so USD/CHF movement might depend on US data and risk sentiment.

JPY

The yen gave up a lot of ground to its major counterparts as traders priced in potential BOJ easing to compensate for the drag on the economy caused by the sales tax hike implemented this month. There are no reports due from Japan today so expect the yen to keep showing signs of weakness on the sales tax increase.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Kiwi sold off significantly in today’s Asian trading session when a reversal candlestick formed on the .8700 handle to the dollar and caused traders to book profits. The Aussie also saw some weakness as Australian building approvals showed a 5.0% slide. Meanwhile the Loonie was able to make small gains thanks to strong medium-tier inflation data. No other reports are due from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way