Forex Major Currencies Outlook (April 25, 2014)

Headline durable goods orders increased by 2.6% versus the estimated 2.1% growth and core durable goods orders chalked up a 2.0% gain versus the projected 0.6% uptick. Meanwhile initial jobless claims came in at 329K, higher than the consensus at 309K. Revised UoM consumer sentiment data is lined up for today and an upward revision from 82.6 to 83.2 is eyed.

EUR

The euro consolidated to the dollar in recent trading although it did see some rallies during the release of strong German data. The Ifo business climate reading rose from 110.7 to 111.2, outpacing the consensus at 110.5. Volatility picked up when Draghi took center stage and pointed out that monetary policy might be influenced by the euro’s exchange rate movement, which led some to believe that the ECB is more inclined to ease if the euro keeps climbing. No major reports lined up for today from the euro zone.

GBP

Data from the UK came in stronger than expected as the CBI realized sales index jumped from 13 to 30, higher than the forecast at 18. However, this wasn’t enough to push the pound in a clear direction since traders were still digesting the outcome of the BOE monetary policy meeting. The minutes revealed mixed views on economic performance and showed that many were concerned about weak inflation. UK retail sales are due today and a 0.4% decline is projected to follow the previous 1.7% increase.

CHF

Data from Switzerland was much weaker than expected yesterday, as the trade balance fell short of the expected 2.31 billion CHF surplus at 2.05 billion CHF. The previous month’s figure was also revised lower, indicating weaker export performance for the country. There are no reports due from Switzerland today but SNB head Thomas Jordan will make a testimony that might rock the franc’s movement before the end of the trading week.

JPY 

Japan printed weaker than expected inflation reports in today’s Asian trading session but this still marks increased price pressures, which was taken positively by the yen. All industries activity data is up for release today and a 0.5% decline is expected. No other reports are lined up from Japan for the rest of the day.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls retreated from their recent climb as risk aversion took hold of the markets yesterday. The Kiwi was unable to sustain its rallies despite the RBNZ rate hike while the Aussie retreated as Australian traders were off on a holiday. There were no reports from Canada then and none are due today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way