Forex Major Currencies Outlook (September 13, 2013)

EUR/USD held on to the 1.3300 handle while GBP/USD fought to stay above 1.5800. Slightly weaker spending is expected for the month of August, as the headline figure could increase by 0.5% while the core figure could show a 0.2% uptick. Stronger than expected readings would confirm the Septaper, which would be dollar-positive, while weaker than expected figures could trigger a selloff. 

EUR

The euro struggled to hold on to the 1.3300 mark against the dollar but it was no match to yen strength yesterday. Draghi’s speech was dovish as expected since he pointed out that the recovery in the euro zone is still week but mentioned that the euro is a stable currency. He reiterated the ECB’s plans to keep rates unchanged at their low levels for an extended period but the euro barely reacted to this, as it wasn’t really a surprise. Euro zone industrial production data also turned out to be disappointing. 

GBP

The pound was able to hold on to some of its recent gains to the dollar but it caved to yen rallies. There were no major reports released from the UK yesterday, as Carney’s speech led to a bit of pound selling. According to the central bank head, the improvements in hiring are just one part of the equation since the BOE is also watching the high inflation in the nation. No reports are due from the UK today as GPB/USD could rely on the US retail sales release for direction. 

CHF

The franc lost ground to the dollar but gained against the euro yesterday, as there were no reports released from Switzerland. There are no reports due from Switzerland again today so USD/CHF and EUR/CHF could simply depend on US and euro zone data or market sentiment. 

JPY

The yen was a big gainer yesterday, as sentiment for the Japanese economy improved. Although there were no major releases, the clarification by some Japanese officials that the BOJ isn’t easing simply to bring down the value of the yen was reassuring. No reports due from Japan means that yen trading could depend on risk sentiment. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Kiwi continued its rallying ways throughout the day, spurred by upbeat remarks from RBNZ officials. As for the Aussie, weak jobs data triggered a sharp selloff from the .9300 handle against the dollar to the .9250 levels. No reports from the comdoll economies are due today so the behavior could be driven by US data and market sentiment. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way