Forex Major Currencies Outlook (October 8, 2013)

The consumer credit report came in better than expected and reflected stronger consumer spending but did very little to support the Greenback. A couple of medium-tier reports are up for release today but these are not likely to spur dollar strength, unless the risk off environment starts to favor the Greenback as well. 

EUR

The euro started Monday on a weak note but was able to stage a decent rebound towards the end of the US session. Euro zone Sentix investor confidence was weaker than expected, as the reading fell from 6.5 to 6.1 instead of improving to the estimate at 10.9. The Final GDP reading saw no revisions from the 0.3% figure. German and French trade balance are up for release today, as well as the German factory orders report. Another round of weak figures from the euro zone could prevent EUR/USD or EUR/JPY from making any headway. 

GBP

The pound was able to make a nice comeback on Monday, although there were no major reports released from the UK. Perhaps traders are recovering from the sharp selloff last Friday and starting to price in expectations for the BOE rate decision later this week. The RICS house price balance released earlier today came in better than expected and might be enough to support pound pairs throughout the day. 

CHF

The franc extended its wins against the US dollar during the NY session, although it did sell off at the start of the week. Swiss foreign currency reserves data showed a decline, which means that it is becoming less expensive for the SNB to maintain its franc peg. Swiss unemployment rate is up for release today and it is expected to hold steady at 3.2%. Swiss CPI and retail sales are also up for release. 

JPY

The yen was able to benefit from the risk off market environment on Monday, as it packed in gains against its higher-yielding counterparts. Data from Japan was slightly weak, as the leading indicators index fell from 107.8% to 106.5%, lower than the estimate at 106.9%. Japan’s current account balance missed the mark, as it rose from 0.33T JPY to 0.35T, short of the estimate at 0.65T JPY. The Economy Watchers sentiment index is up for release within the day and an improvement is expected. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were able to recover from the weak start on Monday as the continued government shutdown in the US dwindled demand for the dollar. Canadian building permits came in weaker than expected, as the report showed a 21.2% slide instead of the estimated 2.4% drop. New Zealand reported an improvement in its NZIER business confidence figure from 32 to 38 while Australia’s ANZ job advertisements indicated a 0.2% uptick. Canadian trade balance and housing starts are also due today. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way