Forex Major Currencies Outlook (October 24, 2013)

Against the Japanese yen though, the U.S. dollar was still weaker as the lower-yielding yen proved to be the preferred safe-haven alternative. There were no major reports released from the U.S. during the New York session, but most dollar pairs were able to recover as risk appetite improved later on. 

EUR

The euro dipped a bit lower against the dollar during the Tokyo session but bounced back in the U.S. session. EUR/JPY also made a quick recovery after dipping below the 134.00 mark, even though euro zone data was actually weaker than expected. Belgium printed a weaker than expected NBB business climate reading while overall euro zone consumer confidence made no improvement from the previous -15 reading. For today, German and French euro zone PMIs are up for release and stronger expansions are expected for their manufacturing and services sectors. 

GBP

The pound let go of some of its recent gains to the dollar and yen but it bounced back immediately when the BOE meeting minutes turned out more hawkish than expected. Policymakers were unanimous in voting to keep interest rates and bond purchases unchanged, but what surprised market participants was their decision to upgrade growth forecasts. They also predicted that the labor situation would improve faster than initially estimated. UK CBI industrial order expectations data is up for release today and an improvement could echo the BOE’s upbeat outlook and push the pound higher. 

JPY

The yen was a big winner in yesterday’s trading, as the lower-yielding currency was able to take advantage of risk aversion. News of China’s surging money market rates prompted concerns about liquidity and a potential growth downturn, which led traders to let go of their higher-yielding and riskier holdings. There were no reports released from Japan yesterday and there are none lined up for today so the yen might keep reacting to risk sentiment. 

CHF

The franc extended its wins to the dollar, as the USD/CHF pair is close to testing 0.8900 support. There were no reports released from Switzerland but the risk off environment still boosted the franc, as it appeared to be the better safe-haven alternative compared to the U.S. dollar. There are still no reports due from Switzerland today so risk sentiment might be a major driver of price action once more. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls gave up a lot of ground to the yen and the dollar as risk aversion dominated price action yesterday. The Australian dollar was barely lifted by the better than expected quarterly CPI reading of 1.2% but it seems to be drawing support from the stronger improvement in the Chinese HSBC flash manufacturing PMI report for October, which climbed from 50.2 to 50.9. Meanwhile, the Loonie lost traction when the BOC downgraded its forecast for this year until 2015, even though the central bank maintained monetary policy. New Zealand printed a smaller than expected trade deficit but the previous month’s figure suffered a downward revision. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way