Forex Major Currencies Outlook (October 1, 2013)

For now, lawmakers still haven’t come up with an agreement on how to implement spending cuts and avoid reaching the debt ceiling, which might then force the U.S. to default on its debts. Data from the U.S. barely had any impact on dollar price action yesterday but today’s ISM manufacturing PMI could push dollar pairs around. A small dip is expected for August, which might reinforce the dollar selloff. 

EUR

The euro was stuck in consolidation against the dollar but it managed to score some gains against the Japanese yen. EUR/USD was unable to break past the 1.3550 minor psychological resistance yesterday, as political tensions in Italy continued to threaten the euro zone’s stability. Data from euro zone was mostly weaker than expected, as German retail sales fell short of consensus. For today, Italian and Spanish PMIs are up for release along with the German unemployment change report. 

GBP

The pound was one of the major currencies that surged to new highs against the dollar yesterday, as GBP/USD climbed past the 1.6200 major psychological resistance. Data from the UK was actually in line with expectations only but the positive outlook for the British economy was more than enough to keep the pound afloat. For today, the manufacturing PMI is up for release and another improvement is eyed. After all, the UK has been consistently printing better than expected manufacturing PMI for the past five months. 

CHF

The franc struggled to hold on to its recent gains, as EUR/CHF moved closer to the 1.2200 handle while USD/CHF paced below the .9100 mark. There were no releases from Switzerland yesterday as traders await the release of the SVME PMI today. A slight improvement is expected and this might be enough to let the franc resume its rallies. 

JPY

The yen is also under heavy selling pressure recently, as traders await Abe’s announcement on the sales tax increase. Word on the street is that a hike from 5% to 8% is likely but market watchers are still waiting for the release of the Tankan index to figure out if the economy could withstand a tax hike. Also likely to be announced today is a potential corporate tax cut from the government which could offset the impact of the sales tax. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were in for quiet trading yesterday, as they barely took advantage of dollar weakness. Data from China has been weak, as both HSBC and government manufacturing PMIs fell short of expectations. Canada’s monthly GDP came in line with consensus at 0.6% while New Zealand didn’t release any economic data. The RBA statement is scheduled today and this might have a huge impact on the Aussie if the central bank makes changes. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way