Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 1, 2014)

Data from the US economy was actually weaker than expected but it appears that risk sentiment has favored the safe-havens recently. Chicago PMI fell from 64.3 to 60.5, lower than the estimated 61.6 reading, while the CB consumer confidence reading slipped from 93.5 to 86.0, worse than the projected 92.2 figure. US ADP non-farm employment change data is due today and a 207K reading is expected. Also due today is the ISM manufacturing PMI, which might dip from 59.0 to 58.6.

EUR

The euro suffered another round of selling in recent trading after the euro zone CPI forecasts came in weaker than expected. The headline flash reading fell from 0.4% to 0.3% while the core CPI estimate fell from 0.9% to 0.7%, reviving concerns of deflation and calls for extra ECB easing. German retail sales and French consumer spending data both printed stronger than expected figures though, but these were mostly ignored by the markets. German unemployment picked up by 12K, adding to the euro’s weakness. Spanish and Italian manufacturing PMI are due today.

GBP

The pound gave up ground in recent trading as the UK current account balance came in weaker than expected and saw a downward revision for the previous figure. The final GDP was revised up from 0.8% to 0.9% though. For today, UK manufacturing PMI is up for release and it might improve from 52.5 to 52.6. Weaker than expected data could push the pound lower against its counterparts.

CHF

The franc resumed its selloff to the dollar but moved sideways to the euro in recent trading. There were no reports released from Switzerland then, as the franc took its cue from euro weakness. Swiss SVME PMI is due today and it might dip from 52.9 to 52.1, which would reflect a weaker expansion in the manufacturing industry.

JPY

The yen lost ground in today’s Asian trading session as the Tankan survey printed mixed results. The manufacturing component improved from 12 to 13 instead of falling to 10 while the non-manufacturing component slipped from 19 to 13, worse than the estimated reading at 17. Talks of further easing from the BOJ are also weighing on the yen for the time being.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls struggled to recover to the dollar recently, with NZDUSD pulling up to .7800 and AUDUSD retesting .8750. However, the selling resumed in today’s Asian trading session as Australia’s retail sales showed weaker than expected results while China’s manufacturing PMI held steady at 51.1. New Zealand’s GDT price index is up for release within the day and might also have an impact on Kiwi movement. There are no reports lined up from Canada.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way