Forex Major Currencies Outlook (November 7, 2013)

 Challenger job cuts data showed a 4.2% decline for October, better than the previous 19.1% increase. Advance GDP and initial jobless claims data are up for release today, as the growth figure could come in at 2.0% while the first-time jobless claimants could reach 336K. Also note that FOMC members Dudley and Stein are set to testify today and possibly cause volatility among dollar pairs should they mention their views on the Fed taper. 

EUR

The euro was able to hold on to its current levels against the dollar and yen, as euro zone data came in mixed. Spain’s non-manufacturing PMI was better than expected at 49.6 versus the estimated 48.1 reading and also better than the previous 49.0 figure. However, Italy’s non-manufacturing PMI fell short of consensus at 50.5 versus the estimate at 51.6 and the previous 52.7 reading. Euro zone retail sales disappointed with a 0.6% decline while German factory orders printed an impressive 3.3% jump. The ECB is set to make its interest rate decision today and some are expecting to hear further easing from policymakers. The Spanish and Italian bond auctions are also scheduled today, along with the release of German industrial production data. 

GBP

The pound was able to hold on to its gains yesterday, as the currency was supported by stronger than expected services PMI released the previous day and the expected 1.2% increase in manufacturing production. The industrial production component printed a better than expected 0.9% increase. For today, the BOE interest rate decision is expected to spark volatility among pound pairs, depending on how Carney assesses the economic situation. 

CHF

The Swiss franc moved sideways to the US dollar yesterday, thanks to the lack of data from both US and Switzerland. Swiss foreign currency reserves data is up for release today and might push USD/CHF in a general direction should the actual figure come in better or worse than expected. Other than that, there are no reports due from Switzerland so USD/CHF might be more sensitive to US data. 

JPY

The Japanese yen lost ground to its major counterparts in the earlier trading sessions when risk appetite improved in Asian trading. There were no reports released from Japan, as the yen simply reacted to the Nikkei and other Asian indices closing higher for the day. There are still no reports due from Japan today so yen pairs could be sensitive to risk sentiment yet again. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

The Australian dollar gave up its recent gains to its counterparts when Australia printed a very bleak employment change report. The reading showed a 1.1K increase versus the estimated 10.3K rise while the previous month’s figure was revised down from 9.1K to 3.3K. The jobless rate ticked higher from 5.6% to 5.7%. In Canada, the Ivey PMI came in better than expected as it climbed from 51.9 to 62.8, stronger than the estimated increase to 54.7. There are no reports due from New Zealand but the Kiwi might stay supported because of the gains in hiring in the country. No other reports are due from Canada and Australia as well, so their currencies could react to risk appetite. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way