Forex Major Currencies Outlook (November 29, 2013)

EUR

The euro was able to push a bit higher against the dollar but it seems that EUR/USD’s rally is losing steam. Against the yen though, the euro packed in more gains and took advantage of the lower-yielding currency’s weakness. As for data, German jobs figures were weaker than expected as euro zone’s largest economy printed a 10K rise in unemployment. Import prices were also weaker than expected but CPI was stronger than consensus at 0.2%. German retail sales and French consumer spending figures are due today. 

GBP

The pound carried on with its rallies yesterday as traders continued to buy the currency on the heels of a large upward revision in the UK’s GDP the other day. Although the BOE said that they’re not looking to tighten anytime soon, they did refocus their FLS scheme to smaller firms, which means that they are already confident that the larger lenders could survive without stimulus. For today, UK HPI is up for release along with net lending to individuals data. 

CHF

The franc is making waves in the forex market as it is also being treated as a safe-haven alternative now that the yen is losing its appeal. AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF have been breaking down their support levels recently and appear ready for more losses. Swiss GDP came in line with consensus at 0.5%, which helped provide support for the currency. For today, the KOF economic barometer is up for release and it could show a climb from 1.72 to 1.82. 

JPY

The yen continued to weaken against most of its counterparts, except for the commodity currencies. The BOJ’s commitment to keeping easing in place is weighing on the Asian currency, along with some gains in the Nikkei. The Japanese figures released today came in mostly weaker than expected, leading to more gains for yen pairs as traders anticipated more stimulus later on. Industrial production, jobless rate, and household spending were all weaker than expected. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie and Kiwi were at the bottom of the pack yesterday, as downbeat sentiment for both Australia and New Zealand weighed on their currencies. Traders are waiting to see whether the central banks will intervene or not, so they are careful to establish long positions for these currencies. As for data, Australian private capital expenditure actually came in strong at 3.6% but was not enough to support the Aussie. Private sector credit, on the other hand, was weaker than expected. Canadian monthly GDP is up for release and a 0.1% uptick is eyed. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way