Forex Major Currencies Outlook (November 22, 2013)

Data from the US was also mixed, as the Philly Fed index fell short of consensus by falling from 19.8 to 6.5 instead of the estimated 15.6 reading. Initial jobless claims came in better than expected at 323K versus 333K while headline PPI was as expected at -0.2%. US flash manufacturing PMI improved to 54.3 from an upwardly revised 51.8. Up ahead, the US has a couple of speeches from Fed officials lined up and these aren’t likely to steer dollar pairs in a general direction unless they speak of taper prospects. 

EUR

The euro initially sold off on the heels of weak French manufacturing and services PMIs but was able to recover later on when Draghi mentioned that the prospect of negative deposit rates wasn’t discussed in their latest monetary policy meeting. German PMI came in mixed, with the manufacturing figure as expected at 52.5 and the services PMI better than expected at 54.5. The region’s PMI was also mixed, as the flash services PMI was weaker than expected. Another speech from Draghi is on deck for today and it he is likely to reiterate his previous comments. As for economic data, only the German Ifo business climate index is due and it is likely to tick up from 107.4 to 107.9. 

GBP

The pound was able to push for more gains against its counterparts yesterday when CBI industrial order expectations came in better than expected at 11, up from -4 and significantly higher than the estimate at 0. However, public sector borrowing was weaker than expected, reminding traders that the UK still has its share of debt troubles. There are no reports due from the UK today so it could be all about sentiment driving the pound. 

CHF

 
The franc regained ground against the dollar yesterday, as the US had its share of weak data while Switzerland printed a trade balance in line with expectations. The surplus widened from 2.40 billion CHF to 2.43 billion CHF, reflecting stronger export activity. No reports are due from Switzerland today so the franc might be sensitive to risk taking. 

JPY

The yen was still trading on a weak note yesterday, as BOJ officials confirmed that they’re ready to increase stimulus if necessary. For now though, they are likely to keep their easing program unchanged but Kuroda projected that the economy will reach its inflation target of 2% by March 2016. He also said that he doesn’t think that the yen is trading at abnormally low levels. After all, yen weakness could add support for the economy as it would make exports more affordable. No reports are due from Japan today. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie and Kiwi were both weighed down by central bank officials’ remarks yesterday, as AUD/USD broke below .9300 while NZD/USD tested .8200 support. An RBNZ official said that the Kiwi was overvalued but that intervention isn’t likely for now. He also said that monetary policy can only go so far when it comes to depreciating the currency. Meanwhile, Canada didn’t release any economic reports yesterday but the retail sales figures are up for release today. Headline retail sales could see a 0.3% uptick while core retail sales could show a 0.2% increase. Canadian CPI is also on tap today. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way