Forex Major Currencies Outlook (November 21, 2013)

This was stronger than the estimated 0.1% uptick for both. Headline CPI, on the other hand, fell short of consensus as it posted a 0.1% decline instead of the estimated flat reading. Core CPI was as expected at 0.1%. The dollar was also able to draw support from the FOMC meeting minutes, which showed that the Fed is still on track to taper before the end of the year. US PPI, initial jobless claims, manufacturing PMI, and Philly Fed index are up for release today and another round of strong figures could keep the dollar supported. 

EUR

The euro gave up its gains to the dollar yesterday when ECB officials hinted that they are considering negative deposit rates. This means that the central bank would be charging banks for keeping cash stored in their vaults, thereby encouraging more lending activity. However, this tends to have a negative effect on overall interest rates, which means lower demand for the euro. Euro zone PMIs are up for release today and disappointments might confirm that further easing from the ECB is likely. 

GBP

The pound was unable to keep up its recent rallies when the BOE monetary policy meeting minutes were less hawkish than expected. Apparently, there was some dissent regarding the economic forecasts, as some believed that it would take a longer time for the UK economy to meet its targets. Only public sector net borrowing and CBI industrial order expectations are due from the UK today. 

CHF

The franc lost ground to the dollar in yesterday’s trading, triggering a bounce for USD/CHF from .9100 back to the .9200 area. The improvement in Swiss ZEW economic expectations from 24.9 to 31.6 was not enough to keep the franc afloat when the US printed strong consumer spending data. Swiss trade balance is up for release today but this isn’t likely to cause huge moves among franc pairs. 

JPY

The yen resumed its selloff against most of its counterparts yesterday as the BOJ policy statement drew closer. Some are expecting to hear hints of further easing or potential stimulus once the sales tax increase rolls along. Aside from that, there are no other reports due from Japan so the BOJ statement could have a longer-term impact on yen pairs. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Australian dollar weakened in today’s trading session when China’s manufacturing PMI fell short of expectations. The actual figure came in at 50.4 instead of the estimated 50.9 reading. New Zealand credit card spending ticked lower at 3.2% versus the previous 5.1% reading. Meanwhile, Canadian wholesale sales was weaker than expected at 0.2% instead of the estimated 0.4% uptick, suggesting that consumer spending might be weak too. There are no major reports due from the comdoll economies today. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way