Forex Major Currencies Outlook (November 15, 2013)

Data from the US echoed Yellen’s downbeat assessment, as the initial jobless claims and trade balance both came in below expectations. For today, the Empire State manufacturing index, import prices, industrial production and capacity utilization rate are up for release. These medium-tier figures aren’t expected to trigger a sharp reaction from the dollar but it could be in for more weakness if all the figures come in weak. 

EUR

The euro struggled to hold ground against the dollar when euro zone GDP came in mixed. Germany’s growth was as expected at 0.3%, weaker compared to the previous 0.7% increase, while France showed a contraction of 0.1% instead of the estimated 0.1% growth. Overall, the region’s GDP stood at 0.1%, weaker than the estimate at 0.2% and the previous 0.3% growth. Up ahead, euro zone CPI are up for release and more weakness could spark speculation of further easing from the central bank. 

GBP

Despite weaker than expected UK retail sales, the pound managed to stay resilient to the dollar and the yen. Consumer spending ticked down by 0.7% in October instead of staying flat. There are no reports from the UK today so it will be interesting to see whether the pound can keep holding on to its recent gains. 

CHF

The franc was moving sideways in yesterday’s trading, as Yellen’s speech didn’t spark much of a ruckus in the markets. Data from Switerland was weaker than expected as producer prices printed a 0.4% decline instead of the estimated 0.3% increase. There are no reports due from Switzerland today so there’s a good chance that USD/CHF might keep consolidating. 

JPY

The yen lost a lot of gains to its counterparts as the Nikkei stock index kept surging. For today, the Nikkei opened above 15,000 for the first time in almost half a year, lending more upside for yen pairs. USD/JPY already reached the 100.00 mark and it appears that there’s more upward momentum to the next resistance levels. Japanese preliminary GDP came in stronger than expected at 0.5% and this might keep lifting yen pairs since there are no other reports due from Japan today. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls gave up a few gains to the dollar but managed to score wins against the Japanese yen. There wasn’t much data from these economies recently, as medium-tier data from Canada barely resulted to pronounced gains or losses for the Loonie. Only Canadian manufacturing sales is left on deck for today and analysts foresee a 0.5% rebound from the previous 0.2% decline. Stronger than expected results might keep the Loonie afloat. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way