Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 28, 2014)

The report showed a 0.8% increase in orders while the core version printed a mere 0.1% uptick. Traders might be positioning ahead of tomorrow’s preliminary GDP release, which could show a downward revision and an economic contraction, as there are no major reports due from the US economy today.

EUR

The euro lost ground to the dollar again as Draghi reiterated the potential of further easing if inflationary pressures remain weak. There were no actual reports released from the euro zone then. For today, French consumer spending and German employment change figures are due. Retail sales could rise by 0.5% in euro zone’s second largest economy while its largest economy might print a 14K drop in joblessness. Weaker than expected data might lead to further losses for the euro.

GBP

The pound gave up most of its recent gains when London traders returned from their Spring Day holiday. BBA mortgage approvals were weaker than expected at 42.2K versus the estimated 45.5K figure and the previous 45.9K reading. Only the CBI realized sales report is due today and it might show an improvement from 30 to 36, enough to give the pound a bit of support.

CHF

The franc caved to dollar strength again as Swiss reports simply came in line with expectations. The trade balance showed a surplus of 2.43 billion CHF, although the previous month’s figure was revised down to 2.00 billion CHF. The employment level held steady at 4.19 million, a bit off the estimated 4.21 million reading. Swiss first quarter GDP and UBS consumption indicator are due today, with the growth figure likely to show a 0.6% uptick and consumption to show a small improvement.

JPY

The yen took advantage of the run in risk aversion recently, as it regained ground against most of its counterparts. Talks of an exit strategy from the BOJ’s stimulus program also added support to the yen. However, traders quickly exited their yen longs as they started pricing in declines for this week’s set of data, which includes the April sales tax hike effect.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls struggled to hold on to their current levels when risk aversion revisited the markets yesterday. Australia’s MI leading index showed a 0.5% decline while the ANZ business confidence index in New Zealand showed a large drop from 64.8 to 53.5. Australia’s HIA new home sales and private capital expenditure are the only reports lined up for the next few hours.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way