Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 28, 2013)

The initial jobless claims printed better than expected results while the core PCE price index, which is considered to be the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, showed a 0.1% increase. In addition, personal income and spending both posted gains. Speeches by Fed officials showed that they support the central bank’s plans to taper stimulus at the end of the year but reiterated that this is still dependent on data. For today, the Chicago PMI and the revised UoM consumer sentiment index are due. Strong figures could continue to lift the US dollar.

EUR

The euro managed to hold steady above the 1.3000 major psychological level in yesterday’s trading sessions. German unemployment declined by 12,000 effectively bringing the unemployment rate from 6.9% to 6.8%. This was better than the estimated increase of 8,000 in joblessness. For today, German retail sales are due and an upside surprise could be likely, given the improvement in its labor market. German preliminary inflation is also on tap and an increase of 1.7% is expected.

GBP

GBP/USD edged close to the 1.5200 major psychological support in yesterday’s trading, before bouncing back above 1.5250. The UK current account was weaker than expected as it showed a larger deficit of 14.5 billion GBP instead of the estimated 11.9 billion GBP deficit. Only the Nationwide HPI is set for release from the UK and an increase of 0.4% in house prices is expected.

CHF

The Swiss franc posted huge losses against the euro while it struggled to hold steady against the dollar around .9450. The SNB quarterly bulletin emphasized the points made during the central bank’s monetary policy decision earlier during the month. For today, the KOF economic barometer is due and it is expected to improve from 1.10 to 1.21, indicating a better economic outlook for the next six months.

JPY

The yen lost ground to most of its major counterparts during the European and US sessions, although it did show signs of strength during the Asian session. There were mixed reports released from Japan earlier today, as the Tokyo CPI came in line with expectations while retail sales beat expectations. However, unemployment ticked higher for the month to 4.1%. No other reports are due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The commodity currencies fought hard to stay afloat against the US dollar, as AUD/USD climbed back above the .9300 handle briefly while NZD/USD moved sideways. Canada is set to print its monthly GDP report and show a 0.1% economic expansion for May. A weaker than expected report could push USD/CAD higher up the charts.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way