Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 20, 2014)

Data from the US was slightly better than expected, as initial jobless claims printed a 312K figure versus the estimated 316K reading. The Philly Fed index showed an improvement from 15.4 to 17.8 instead of dipping to 14.3. There are no major reports due from the US economy today, which suggests that quiet price action might be seen unless profit-taking takes place ahead of the weekend.

EUR

The euro edged lower mostly to the franc in yesterday’s trading sessions, despite the lack of economic releases from the region. For today, German PPI is up for release and a 0.2% uptick might be seen Also due today is the euro zone current account balance, which might show a larger surplus. If actual results come in stronger than expected, the euro might have a chance at regaining a bit of ground.

GBP

The pound struggled to hold on to its gains when the UK retail sales report simply came in line with expectations of a 0.5% decline. Aside from that, the previous month’s reading was revised down from 1.3% to just 1.0%. Nevertheless, the pound stayed supported as traders are pricing in BOE rate hike expectations for this year. Only the public sector net borrowing report is due from the UK today and a higher reading than the 11.8 billion GBP consensus might be bearish for the pound.

CHF

The franc rallied after finding relief at the SNB’s decision to keep monetary policy unchanged. Many were expecting to see easing or central bank intervention in order to defend the EUR/CHF floor now that the ECB has implemented several rate cuts. The central bank kept its growth forecast unchanged and upgraded its inflation forecast for the year. Despite that, the prospect of easing or intervention is still on the table, depending on how the franc performs in the near term.

JPY

The yen gave up ground as risk appetite extended its stay in the markets. There have been no major reports released from Japan then and only BOJ Governor Kuroda’s speech is due today, which suggests that yen pairs might keep moving based on risk sentiment until the end of the week.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls regained ground as risk appetite picked up, despite the lack of major data from the comdoll economies. Only the Canadian CPI figures are due today, along with its retail sales reports. Core CPI could increase by another 0.2% while headline CPI could also post a 0.2% gain. Headline retail sales could show a 0.4% rebound while core retail sales could also increase by 0.4%.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way