Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 20, 2013)

The main reason for the bullish dollar sentiment was the Fed’s announcement during its latest monetary policy statement, which said that the central bank was ready to reduce the scale of its bond purchases by the end of the year or by early 2014. Of course this still depends on whether the economy will meet the Fed’s projections for unemployment, growth, and inflation but Bernanke seems confident that the U.S. economy will continue to improve.

EUR

The euro lost ground to the dollar in yesterday’s trading as the lack of data from the euro zone left the shared currency vulnerable to dollar strength. For today, the euro zone will be printing PMI reports from its largest economies, namely France and Germany. Manufacturing and services are both expected to see improvements in the two countries, although most figures are estimated to stay within the contraction zone. German flash services PMI could climb a notch above the 50.0 level, which delineates expansion from contraction. Stronger than expected data could provide support for the euro during the London session.

GBP

The pound gave way to dollar strength in yesterday’s trading, even though the MPC meeting minutes showed that hawks still greatly outnumbered the doves. For today, the U.K. will print its retail sales report and possibly show a 0.8% rebound in consumer spending, a recovery from the 1.3% decline seen in the previous month. CBI industrial orders expectations are also due from the United Kingdom today.

JPY

The yen ended its rally against the U.S. dollar and most of its counterparts yesterday, as the Fed announced that it is ready to scale down its bond purchases by the end of the year or early next year. Japan’s trade balance came in better than expected, with a record increase in exports. This goes to show that the BOJ’s loose monetary policy is starting to bear fruit, as the resulting yen weakness spurred stronger demand for Japanese products. For today, there are no reports due from Japan so the yen could be vulnerable to market sentiment.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

The comdolls lost a lot of ground to the U.S. dollar, as AUD/USD slipped below the .9300 major psychological level. It didn’t help that the Chinese HSBC flash manufacturing PMI came in worse than expected and showed another contraction for June. As for Canada, the very first speech by BOC Governor Poloz didn’t have any surprises, as the new central bank head committed to price stability and renewing business investment in the country. New Zealand printed weaker than expected GDP for the first quarter of the year, showing a mere 0.3% growth instead of the estimated 0.6% increase.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way