Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 1, 2013)

Last week, dollar demand was strong as most of the data came in stronger than expected. Another round of upbeat figures from the US would mean that the Fed is moving closer to tapering its bond purchases and that the US economy could stay on its feet even with less stimulus. The ISM manufacturing PMI on tap for today is slated to show an improvement from 49.0 to 50.6, showing that the sector rebounded back to expansion for June.

 EUR

 The euro tested the 1.3000 handle against the dollar last week, and today’s top-tier data could determine if the pair will bounce or break. Only medium-tier reports such as Italian PMI and CPI estimate are due from the euro zone today, which suggests that EUR/USD performance could be more impacted by US data. However, significantly weak data from the euro zone could trigger an early break below the 1.3000 mark.

 GBP

 The pound could have a chance to rebound against the dollar today as the UK will print its manufacturing PMI. The figure is projected to hold steady at 51.3 but an upside surprise could lift the pound against its counterparts. Data from the UK has been more or less strong recently, which could increase the odds for better than expected results.

 CHF

The Swiss franc weakened against the Greenback on Friday, mostly because of the strong dollar bias. The SVME PMI is due from Switzerland today and the report could print an improvement from 52.2 to 52.5, indicating that the manufacturing sector posted a stronger expansion. A weaker than expected result could worsen the ongoing franc selloff.

 JPY

 The yen had a mixed performance on Friday, as it weakened against the dollar and strengthened against the Aussie. It managed to consolidate against the euro and the pound. Data from Japan has been mostly stronger than expected, save for the household spending report, which showed a 1.6% decline. The Tankan figures released earlier today came in strong, posting an improvement for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors.

 Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

The comdolls edged slowly lower on Friday, as though the recent selloffs were starting to get exhausted. China printed its HSBC final manufacturing PMI and official government PMI for June and both came in line with expectations. The government PMI fell from 50.8 to 50.1 while the HSBC figure was revised slightly down from 48.3 to 48.2. Canadian banks are on a holiday and there are no other reports due from the comdoll economies for the rest of the day.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way