Forex Major Currencies Outlook (January 21, 2014)

There have been no reports released from the US yesterday since traders were on holiday and there are no reports due today. This suggests that market sentiment might be the major driving force of price action in the meantime.

EUR

The euro edged lower than its counterparts in yesterday’s trading, as German PPI came in weaker than expected. The report showed a 0.1% uptick instead of the estimated 0.2% increase in price levels. Talk of deflation has been rampant, particularly in periphery countries, so traders were surprised to find out that the region’s largest economy might also be in for weaker inflationary pressures in the near term. For today, German ZEW economic sentiment is up for release and it could show an improvement from 62.0 to 63.4. Meanwhile, the euro zone ZEW is expected to rise from 68.3 to 70.2.

GBP

The pound was stuck in consolidation to the dollar yesterday, as GBP/USD moved sideways around the 1.6450 minor psychological level. There have been no major reports released from the UK then and only the medium-tier CBI industrial order expectations data is due today. The report could show a dip from 12 to 10, which might lead to a quick pound selloff.

CHF
The franc gave back some of its recent gains to the dollar, as there were no reports released from Switzerland yesterday. There are still no reports due today so it could be all about risk sentiment driving franc price action.

JPY

The Japanese yen packed in significant gains but returned some of these in today’s Asian trading session. Data from Japan has been weaker than expected yesterday, reporting a 0.1% decline in the revised industrial production report instead of the initially printed 0.1% uptick. There are no reports due from Japan so the yen pairs’ movement might be dictated by market sentiment.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls regained a bit of ground against the dollar in recent trading, with USD/CAD holding on to the 1.0950 handle and NZD/USD bouncing up to the .8300 area. New Zealand’s quarterly CPI report was better than expected at 0.1% for Q4 2013 instead of the estimated flat reading. This was enough to spark rate hike speculations in the RBNZ’s upcoming monetary policy statement. Later on, Canada will release its wholesale sales report and manufacturing sales. Both reports could show a 0.3% uptick but the odds of a downside surprise are high and might trigger further losses for the Loonie.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way