Forex Major Currencies Outlook (February 18, 2014)

Only medium-tier data such as the Empire State manufacturing index, TIC long-term purchases, and NAHB housing market index are up for release today. Weaker than expected reports could trigger a sharp selloff for the US dollar, as it would confirm that the extreme weather conditions are starting to take their toll on overall economic performance.

EUR

The euro took a break from its recent strong rallies, as there were no major reports released yesterday. News of Merkel voting against an additional set of funds for Greece as proposed by German Finance Minister Schaeuble also weighed on the euro. German ZEW economic sentiment data is up for release today and the index is projected to dip from 61.7 to 61.3, which might lead to a weaker euro.

GBP

The pound continued its strong rally in the start of yesterday’s trading but made a quick pullback during the US session. There were no major reports released from the UK economy then but today could be a different story as CPI figures are due. Recall that BOE Governor Carney recently upgraded the inflation forecasts yet analysts are expecting to see the annual CPI hold steady at the 2.0% mark. Stronger than expected results might be positive for the pound, as it would convince policymakers to tighten earlier than expected.

CHF

The franc paused from its recent climb against the dollar, as there were no reports released from the Swiss economy yesterday. There are still no reports due today so USD/CHF price action might hinge on market sentiment or US economic reports. Another round of weak data from the US could push USD/CHF even lower for the day.

JPY

Yen pairs ended the day on a weak note, as risk aversion spurred by weak Japanese GDP provided support for the lower-yielding yen. The BOJ is set to make its monetary policy statement today and it will be interesting to see what they have to say about the recent weakness in the economy and what they plan to do to offset the effect of the upcoming tax hike. Dovish remarks could push yen pairs back up the charts, as it could convince some traders that the BOJ is still ready to ease when needed.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls bounced back to action in recent trading despite the lack of top-tier data. Earlier today, the RBA released the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting and showed that the central bank isn’t looking to cut rates soon, leading to a strong AUD rally. However, the gains fizzled as the minutes also revealed the policymakers’ preference for a weak Australian dollar. Only the foreign securities purchases data is up for release from Canada today and this might not have such a huge impact on Loonie action.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way