Forex Major Currencies Outlook (February 11, 2014)

Traders are starting to price in dovish remarks from Fed head Yellen, as jobs data have posted consecutive misses. Take note that Yellen’s speech will be released early on the Fed’s website to price action could pick up even before her actual testimony in Congress.

EUR

The euro edged slightly higher in recent trading even though data from the euro zone came in weak. French industrial production fell by 0.3% instead of the estimated 0.1% dip while Italian industrial production declined by 0.9% instead of staying flat. However, Sentix investor confidence came in stronger than expected at 13.3, up from 11.9. There are no reports lined up from the euro zone today.

GBP

The pound struggled to hold on to the 1.6400 major psychological level against the dollar since there were no major reports released from the UK yesterday. There are still no reports lined up for today so pound movement might depend on risk sentiment and US events.

CHF

The franc took advantage of recent dollar weakness, allowing USD/CHF to break below the rising channel on its 4-hour chart. Swiss jobless rate held steady at 3.2% as expected, allowing the franc to hold on to its gains. There are no reports due from Switzerland today.

JPY

The yen gave up more ground to its counterparts when risk sentiment continued to improve. Japanese current account data came in below consensus while the money supply was as expected. There are no reports lined up from Japan today since traders are on holiday. Volatility among yen pairs might be a little higher because of the low liquidity in today’s Asian trading session.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls regained ground to the dollar even though there weren’t much reports released yesterday. Earlier today, Australian reports came in mixed with a higher than expected quarterly HPI but a sharp drop in home loans. However, the NAB business confidence came in strong with an improvement from 6 to 8. Over in China, the PBOC announced its expectations of more volatile money market rates and higher borrowing costs, reviving concerns of a default in the nation. Up ahead, Canada’s government budget release is due.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way