Forex Major Currencies Outlook (December 6, 2013)

Aside from that, the initial jobless claims report printed better than expected results, setting the state for a potential upside surprise in today’s NFP release. The jobs report could show an additional 180K in hiring for November, weaker than the previous month’s 204K increase, but it should be enough to bring the jobless rate down from 7.3% to 7.2%. However, if this improvement is simply chalked up to a weaker participation rate, the US dollar’s gains might be limited. In any case, make sure you account for additional volatility when trading the NFP. 

EUR

The euro had another round of gains in yesterday’s trading when the ECB decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.25% and give no mention of further easing. In fact, in his speech a few hours later, ECB Governor Draghi reiterated that additional LTRO is not necessary for now. Traders weren’t expecting to see a less-dovish Draghi in yesterday’s press conference, leading many to believe that the economic situation in the euro zone might not be so bad after all. Only medium-tier reports are due from the euro zone today, as Germany factory orders data is up for release. 

GBP

The pound was unable to sustain its rallies in yesterday’s trading even though the BOE decided to keep interest rates unchanged and make no changes to its bond purchases. Perhaps traders are still waiting for the actual minutes of the meeting to be released before taking on any large pound positions. Only the UK consumer inflation expectations report is up for release today and it isn’t expected to spark huge moves among pound pairs. 

CHF
The franc was a big winner yesterday when it pushed USD/CHF below the .9000 major psychological level and AUD/CHF lower down the charts. There were actually no reports released from the Swiss economy yesterday so the move may have been inspired by risk aversion, which typically benefits the lower-yielding currencies like the Swiss franc. The CPI report is due today and a 0.2% drop in price levels is eyed. 

JPY

The yen continued to rally against its counterparts in yesterday’s trading as risk appetite remained subdued. There were no reports released from Japan yesterday and the only report due today is the leading indicators release, which could show a small improvement from 109.2% to 109.9%, which might be positive for the Nikkei and USD/JPY. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls had another weak trading day, as AUD lost further ground to the dollar and the yen. Australia printed a weaker than expected trade balance, which might be blamed again on their strong currency, while Canada printed a massive disappointment with its Ivey PMI report. The figure dipped from 62.8 to 53.7 in November, lower than the estimated drop to 50.9. Canadian jobs data is up for release today and a 12.3K increase in hiring is expected, which could keep their unemployment rate steady at 6.9%. 

Kate Curtis from Trader's Way