Forex Major Currencies Outlook (December 2, 2013)

Over the weekend, some currency pairs gapped up as it appeared that traders have a stronger risk appetite, particularly for those currencies whose countries are performing well. There have been no reports released from the US last Friday and for today, we have a few red flags lined up. First is the speech by Fed head Bernanke, who might clarify whether a taper could take place this month or not. Another event to watch out for is the release of the ISM manufacturing PMI, which is slated to dip from 56.4 to 55.2. 

EUR

The euro managed to hold steady on Friday but it appears to be losing ground at the start of this week. Data from the euro zone was mostly weaker than expected last Friday, as French consumer spending and German retail sales both missed expectations. For today, Spanish and Italian manufacturing PMI are up for release and another round of disappointments might trigger a stronger euro selloff. 

GBP

The pound managed to extend its gains after a quick pullback on Friday. GBP/USD breached the 1.6400 handle at the start of this week’s Asian trading session, as traders banked on the fundamental strength of the UK economy. Data from the UK was actually weak last Friday, as money supply and net lending to individuals fell short of expectations. UK manufacturing PMI is up for release today and a jump from 56.0 to 56.5 is expected. 

CHF

The franc held steady against the dollar last Friday when Switzerland’s KOF economic barometer came in slightly above consensus. The figure climbed from 1.71 to 1.85, beating the estimate at 1.82. For today, the SVME PMI is up for release and a rise from 54.2 to 55.1 is expected, which might allow the franc to sustain its gains to the dollar and the euro. 

JPY

The yen resumed its selloff to its major counterparts at the start of this trading week, as traders risk appetite was up. Data from Japan was mixed last Friday, as Tokyo core CPI came in better than expected while national core CPI met expectations. However, household spending and employment both came in short. For today, capital spending came in weaker than expected, fueling yen weakness. BOJ Kuroda is set to give a testimony later on. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls rebounded against the dollar on Friday and today as we got a dose of promising data from China, Australia, New Zealand and Canada. Canada’s monthly GDP was better than the estimated 0.1% uptick as the actual figure showed 0.3% growth. China’s official manufacturing PMI came in line with estimates at 51.4 over the weekend while the HSBC final manufacturing PMI was better than expected at 50.8. New Zealand’s overseas trade index showed a 7.5% increase while Australia printed strong building approvals and company operating profits a few hours ago. No other reports are due from these economies for the rest of the day. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way