Forex Major Currencies Outlook (December 17, 2013)

The Empire State manufacturing index did post an improvement from its previous negative reading but the actual figure of 1.0 was short of the consensus at 4.9. The flash manufacturing PMI also fell short of expectations as it dipped from 54.7 to 54.4 instead of improving to 54.9. US inflation reports are up for release today and these aren’t likely to cause huge waves in price action as traders could be positioning ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC statement.

EUR

The euro was unable to make new highs in yesterday’s trading, as data from the euro zone was mostly weaker than expected. French manufacturing and services PMIs both disappointed while Germany printed a weak services PMI. The manufacturing PMI of Germany improved from 52.7 to 54.2, lifting the region’s manufacturing PMI from 51.6 to 52.7. German ZEW economic sentiment data is up for release today and the index is slated to rise from 54.6 to 55.3, which might allow the euro to extend its gains.

GBP

The pound suffered a deeper selloff in yesterday’s trading as there were no major reports to give it support. Today might be a different story as UK CPI figures are up for release. Stronger than expected figures might force the BOE to tighten earlier than initially estimated in order to keep inflationary pressures at bay. However, the annual CPI reading is projected to hold steady at 2.2%.

CHF
The franc resumed its winning ways in yesterday’s trading, as the risk off environment favored the lower-yielding franc. There were no reports released from Switzerland on Monday and there are none due today, which suggests that we’ll see a continuation of the recent price action if there are no changes in risk sentiment.

JPY

The yen had a mixed performance as it lost further ground to the euro but managed to hold steady against the Aussie. Data from Japan was actually stronger than expected, as the Tankan indices posted significant improvements, yet the Nikkei posted a 1.62% loss for the day. There are no reports due from Japan today, which suggests that yen pairs might be sensitive to risk sentiment.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls saw further weakness in yesterday’s trading, as AUD/USD edged to test its yearly lows while NZD/USD showed hesitation in rallying higher. Data from China was weaker than expected, with the HSBC flash manufacturing PMI falling short of the consensus at 51.0 and chalking up a 50.5 reading. RBA monetary policy minutes showed that policymakers thought that the AUD was too high while the government’s mid-year report showed larger than expected deficit estimates.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way