Forex Major Currencies Outlook (August 28, 2014)

For today, US preliminary GDP and initial jobless claims are up for release. The GDP reading could be revised slightly lower from 4.0% to 3.9% in the second quarter of the year while the initial jobless claims report could show a 299K figure. Pending home sales data is also due and it might print a 0.6% rebound from the previous 1.1% decline.

EUR

The euro made a small recovery against some of its forex counterparts as traders took profits off their short positions ahead of today’s key events. Data from the euro zone was weaker than expected yesterday, as the German GfK consumer climate index slipped from 8.9 to 8.6 while the import prices report showed a 0.6% decline. For today, German preliminary CPI is due and it might show a flat reading. Also due today is the German unemployment change which could print smaller 6K decline in joblessness versus the previous 12K drop.

GBP

The pound was mostly stuck in consolidation as there were no reports to provide any clear direction, although the bias for GBPUSD remains to the downside. Only the CBI realized retail sales report is up for release from the UK economy today and it might print an improvement from 21 to 27. Stronger than expected data could lead to a sharp bounce but a disappointing reading might push pound pairs lower.

CHF

The franc made a bit of a recovery in yesterday’s trading sessions, despite the drop in Switzerland’s UBS consumption indicator from 2.07 to 1.66. Swiss employment level data is up for release today and it could show a gain from 4.17M to 4.21M, which might be positive for the franc. Apart from that, the Swiss currency could also be affected by euro movements after the top-tier data releases.

JPY

The yen had a mixed performance as it advanced to the European currencies but gave up some ground to the higher-yielding commodity currencies. The Nikkei managed to chalk up a small gain for the day, indicating that risk appetite was present during the Asian session. No reports were released from Japan then and none are due for today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls had a strong performance, particularly for the Loonie which advanced further to the US dollar. Australia’s construction work done for the second quarter saw a 1.2% decline while the previous quarter saw a downgrade to a 0.4% drop. Crude oil inventories showed falling stockpiles, which drove prices and the Loonie higher. Earlier today, Australia’s private capital expenditure report marked a 1.1% gain while HIA new home sales saw a 5.7% decline. Canadian current account balance is due later today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way