New Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 20, 2017)

Data was stronger than expected, with building permits up from 1.17M to 1.25M and housing starts up from 1.12M to 1.22M. Initial jobless claims and the Philly manufacturing index, which could dip from 27.6 to 23.4, are due next. 

EUR 

The euro returned some of its recent gains as traders are reducing their exposure to the ECB monetary policy statement. No actual rate changes are eyed but traders are hoping to hear more hints of tapering from Governor Draghi. He did drop some upbeat remarks during his previous testimonies but policymakers cautioned that markets may have misinterpreted these comments. German PPI and euro zone current account balance is also eyed. 

GBP 

The pound is in a weak spot due to Brexit concerns and weak CPI data, which has lowered BOE rate hike expectations. There have been no reports out of the UK economy yesterday while today has the retail sales report due. A 0.4% rebound over the previous 1.2% decline is eyed but another drop could remind traders that consumer spending is reeling from higher price levels. 

CHF 

The franc remained in a weak spot against its rivals on resurfacing jitters in the European region. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday while today has the trade balance on tap. A narrower surplus of 2.89 billion CHF is eyed compared to the previous 3.40 billion CHF figure. 

JPY 

The yen regained a bit of ground as traders liquidated some of their short holdings ahead of the BOJ decision. No actual policy changes are eyed but dovish remarks or jawboning could push the yen lower once more. However, a neutral stance could lead to some gains for the Japanese currency. Earlier today, the trade balance was printed and a lower surplus of 0.08T JPY was seen. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) 

The comdolls were able to hold on to most of their recent gains as EIA crude oil stockpiles posted a larger than expected draw of 4.7 million barrels. This marks the third consecutive weekly drop in inventories so global oversupply concerns appear to be easing. Australia is set to report is jobs figure next and a 14.4K gain in hiring is eyed. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way