Forex Major Economies Outlook (December 19, 2013)

The Fed cited strong improvements in the labor market as their main reason for reducing stimulus, but pointed out that interest rates will still remain low until the jobless rate reaches 6.5%. Bernanke also cautioned about the potential impact of tapering on inflation, which has been stuck way below the Fed’s 2% target for quite some time already. With that, the US dollar might be in for a good run in the last few trading days of the year, unless incoming Fed head Yellen says that it will take a long time before the central bank tapers again.

EUR

The euro finally gave way to dollar strength in yesterday’s trading, as the FOMC decision to taper boosted the US dollar against its counterparts. Data from the euro zone was in line with expectations, as the German Ifo business climate came in at 109.5, up from the previous 109.3 reading. Euro zone current account and Spanish bond auction are lined up for today, both events of which are not expected to have a huge impact on euro movement.

GBP

The pound gave up a bit of gains to the dollar yesterday but GBP/USD still managed to stay afloat, as the UK had its share of positive data. Claimant count change was better than expected, with a larger decline in unemployment. This was enough to push the UK jobless rate down from 7.6% to 7.4%. For today, UK retail sales are up for release and stronger than expected data might be seen, given the recent rise in hiring. After dropping by 0.7% in the previous month, a 0.3% rebound is expected for November.

CHF
The franc gave up a lot of its recent wins to the dollar when the FOMC announced its decision to reduce bond purchases. Nonetheless, the USD/CHF downtrend is still very intact for now. Swiss SECO economic forecasts and trade balance are up for release today and these reports might spur franc strength if they come in stronger than expected.

JPY

The yen was no match to the dollar in yesterday’s trading, although other yen pairs didn’t move so much. There were no reports released from Japan, as USD/JPY’s movement was mostly spurred by dollar strength following the FOMC statement. There are no reports lined up from Japan today so the yen might continue to cave to dollar strength.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were badly hurt in yesterday’s trading, both by the dollar’s rallies and the decline in gold and oil prices. AUD/USD sank deeper below the .8900 handle while NZD/USD was rejected at .8300 again. There are no major reports due from the comdoll economies today so these currencies might keep losing ground on risk aversion and dollar strength.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way